Publications: Notes at the Margin

What's with Oil? Ethanol to the Rescue? (May 6, 2019)


At this juncture, warnings of an impending price surge such as those pronounced here seem ridiculous. The questions for the moment are these. What has happened? Why have markets not been moved by US actions against Iran? Why has the sudden shortage of crude in Eastern Europe had such a modest impact? Why were markets blasé to Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih’s statement that markets are well-supplied? These inquiries can be summarized in a single query: Why is there so little fear in the market? We offer several possible explanations.


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