Publications: Notes at the Margin

Too Early to Tell: Preparing for IMO 2020, No Forecasts from Futures (July 22, 2019)


Confusion abounds regarding the IMO 2020 impact. Last week, one group of writers predicted the transition to the new low-sulfur marine fuel market would cause few ripples. A second group, though, expects serious problems. The title of this report, "Too Early to Tell," captures our view that we cannot yet be sure the transition will lead to enormous market distortions. However, we cast our lot with those expecting large effects on diesel fuel. We add that the apparent decline, perhaps even collapse, of gasoline consumption and refining margins could make the diesel issue much worse.


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