Publications: Notes at the Margin

20 x 20: Vienna, We Have a Problem (January 2, 2018)


The title of this first report in 2018 may be obscure. What do we mean by "20 x 20"? The answer is simple. It may also seem absurd to many. Others will see the number and begin to worry. "20 x 20" means US crude oil production could climb to twenty million barrels per day by the end of 2020.


The number seems extreme—and we doubt US production will go that high. However, a level of fourteen million barrels per day by the end of 2019, more than four million barrels per day above the forecast for the end of 2018 published in the Energy Information Administration's latest Short-term Energy Outlook, seems plausible. To paraphrase the Apollo 13 movie, "Vienna, we have a problem."


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