Our View

US Energy Independence Day

In his December 6 Wall Street Journal article, reporter Bradley Olson declared "US Becomes Net Exporter of Oil, Fuels for First Time in Decades." We saw this coming in 2012 in this paper published by The International Economy. Olson acknowledged our "get" in this tweet.

Crude Oil Range of Instability

Oil markets as measured by WTI can only be stabilized at price levels above $60 per barrel or below $50. This means Brent must trade at prices above $66 to $70 or below $56. The price range between $50 and $60 for WTI at Cushing is a "range of instability." See "Rethinking Market Fundamentals III: Quantifying the Hedging Impact and Defining the Range of Instability," Notes at the Margin, December 17, 2018.

Rethinking Market Fundamentals III (December 17, 2018) -- In this report, we quantify the hedging impact on crude oil prices and define and explain the price range of instability.

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