Publications: Notes at the Margin

IMO 2020: Appearance of First Market Impacts (April 15, 2019)


The first warnings of the impending IMO-2020-related dislocations in oil markets are coming to light now, far sooner than many expected. Buyers are paying a premium for certain crude oils, for instance, spot prices are higher than might otherwise be expected, and governments are starting to take steps that will exacerbate the situation. All these events are occurring more than eight months before the IMO deadline. Consequently, real problems could begin to manifest as early as July or August, well before the rule takes effect.


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