Publications: Notes at the Margin
Confused (February 18, 2019)
No organization commenting on markets and no analyst following the market—none—have bothered to note the role that hedging has played in pushing prices down. The lack of interest in the slow flash crash is astounding. It is as if everyone who follows the oil market is doing the equivalent of asking Mrs. Lincoln in 1865, "Sorry about events, but how did you like the play?" Maybe we are out of touch. Maybe we do not understand oil markets. Maybe. However, our model that links changes in volatility and inventories to oil price changes continues to be correct. The numbers do not lie. Prices are following our scenarios, not the ones put out in the petroleum or general financial press. The data tell an important story. Those seeking to profit or survive should pay attention. Beyond the oil market data, though, market participants need to focus on real-world events. Were these individuals to look beyond the cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and other oil producers, they would notice some worrisome developments.
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- Notes at the Margin
- US Energy Dominance:
- A Disruption with a New Twist... (Februa...
- Forecasting Is Difficult, Especially abo...
- Bending the Forward Price Curve (Februar...
- Is the End of Oil Near? (February 1, 202...
- Weekly EIA Data: Reliable, Worthless, or...
- Too Big to Succeed (January 18, 2021)
- Did the Fracking Trap Catch the Oil Prod...
- The 2021 Oil Market as of January 1 (Jan...
- Timing Is Everything (December 21, 2020)
- Adapting: From Anticipatory to Responsiv...
- Fracking Comeback (December 7, 2020)
- The Oil Market's Dilemma (November 30, 2...
- Leave No One Behind (November 23, 2020)
- Excess Returns to Storage: The Informati...
- Impact of the Virus; Consequences of the...
- Defeated by the Virus (November 2, 2020)
- Panic at the Wellhead and the
- The Oil Industry and the Boeing 2707 (Oc...
- Long-Term Consequences of Short-Term Act...
- Too Much Oil? (October 5, 2020)
- September 22: A Day of Infamy for Hydroc...
- Fraud on the Market (September 21, 2020)
- The Transition: How Fast? (September 14,...
- US Frackers at Risk (September 8, 2020)
- Resurgent Oil Consumption: Real or Imagi...
- Airline Fuel Acquisition: Crushing Refin...
- Implications of Capital Starvation; Prof...
- OPEC+ Take Note (August 3, 2020)
- The Consequences of Political Incompeten...
- The Saudi Central Bank of Oil; Preparing...
- The IEA's Fantasy (July 13, 2020)
- CME: Exterminator of US Energy Independe...
- Hedging, Negative Oil Prices, and the US...
- Rose-Colored Glasses Removed II (June 22...
- Oil's Potential "Leasco" Implosion (June...
- Attempting to Defy Gravity and the Laws ...
- Rose-Colored Glasses Removed (June 1, 20...
- Irrational Exuberance? (May 26, 2020)
- Market-Moving Data... (May 18, 2020)
- Declining US Crude Supply (May 11, 2020)
- Dominance Denied: Possible Decline in US...
- Beyond Greed Redux (April 27, 2020)
- No Certainty (April 20, 2020)
- Toward Collapse (April 13, 2020)
- The Saudi Victory; Lessons from the Depr...
- No Place for Shale (March 30, 2020)
- An Industry on the Verge of Collapse (Ma...
- Negative Crude Prices? (March 16, 2020)
- Putin's Revenge on the US? (March 9, 202...
- Coronavirus Impact: Two Views (March 2, ...
- Products to Crude's Rescue (February 24,...
- COVID-19 Impact: Known Knowns (February ...
- Coronavirus Defeats Oil Producers (Febru...
- The Price Anchor (February 3, 2020)
- The Fossil Problem: Few Companies Will S...
- Frackers as a Force for Stability; IMO 2...
- Gasoline: The New Residual Fuel (January...
- China, IMO 2020, and Assassination (Janu...
- End-of-Year Thoughts (December 30, 2019)
- Crude: Getting Tighter (December 23, 201...
- The IMO Conundrum (December 16, 2019)
- Trying to Understand (December 9, 2019)
- Dominating the Energy Dominator; OPEC+'s...
- Noise Trading and the Direction of Oil P...
- Too Late? (November 18, 2019)
- Rethinking Energy Security (November 11,...
- Irrelevant Oil: Implications (November 4...
- Reliable Suppliers; IMO 2020 Impacts: Ma...
- Recession Avoided (October 21, 2019)
- The Midland Crunch (October 14, 2019)
- Raising Rivals' Costs (October 7, 2019)
- The Saudi Success, The California Except...
- No Time for Scenarios; The Diesel Story ...
- Disruptions: Lessons from the Past (Note...
- Here We Go Again; The Slow, Slower, and ...
- Kleptocratic Energy Policy: Ugly Consequ...
- IMO 2020: Supply, Demand, Speculation, 2...
- Forecast Often, Implications of Petro De...
- Implications of Kleptocratic US Energy P...
- The Saudi Gambit (August 12, 2019)
- Oil Markets: Not for the Timid (August 5...
- California Asserts Command (July 29, 201...
- Too Early to Tell (July 22, 2019)
- Oversupplied? (July 15, 2019)
- OPEC's Possible Death Spiral: The Tin An...
- Getting Causality Wrong (July 1, 2019)
- Too Much Gasoline (June 24, 2019)
- Look East Young Man (and Woman), Look Ea...
- The Global Gasoline Surplus (June 10, 20...
- Asia's Emergence (June 3, 2019)
- The Trade War: A Seemingly Silent Chines...
- Analysis Vacuum -- China Oil Price Domin...
- Oil to Natural Gas Parity (May 13, 2019)
- What's with Oil? (May 6, 2019)
- Deja Vu All Over Again (April 29, 2019)
- Santayana Moments (April 22, 2019)
- IMO 2020: Appearance of First Market Imp...
- IMO 2020 Price Impact Forecasts... (Apri...
- Sanctions on Iran... (April 1, 2019)
- In Denial (March 25, 2019)
- The Oil Industry Sees $100 Crude Coming ...
- US Future Crude Production: An Inconveni...
- The Long-Term Implications of Trump's Oi...
- Crude Oil Prices: Where Now? (February 2...
- Confused (February 18, 2019)
- Volatility Matters (February 11, 2019)
- Oil Markets in 2019 and 2020: No Feasibl...
- China's Threat to Refining Margins/Will ...
- Fracking's Achilles' Heel... (January 21...
- Hook to OPEC's Rescue (January 14, 2019)
- For the Lack of a Nail (January 7, 2019)
- What Ails Oil? (December 31, 2018)
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals III (Dece...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals II (Decem...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals (December...
- Revenge of the Quants: Robert Mertons' O...
- Is There a Feasbile Solution to Product ...
- Blindsided by Gasoline: IMO 2020 Preview...
- Sanctions Surprise (November 5, 2018)
- The US at the IMO (October 29, 2018)
- The Aftermath (October 22, 2018)
- From London to Denver (October 15, 2018)
- A Policy Too Far? (October 8, 2018)
- US Iran Sanctions, OPEC Surplus Capacity...
- Designing Circuit Breakers for IMO 2020 ...
- Emerging Markets Again... (September 17,...
- The Emerging Market Threat (September 10...
- Quick Thoughts (September 4, 2018)
- Gasoline Use: Misunderstood (August 27, ...
- Hedge Now! (August 20, 2018)
- IMO 2020: Worst-Case Scenario for Retail...
- Energy in the Crosshairs (August 6, 2018...
- Distillate/Diesel: A Spike in the Offing...
- The SPR Popgun; European Tariffs Could T...
- US Independent Producers: The Next Victi...
- Trump, Tweets, Trade (July 9, 2018)
- Panic at the White House (July 2, 2018)
- OPEC's Decision; Rules of Thumb and IMO ...
- The Calm Before the Storm (June 18, 2018...
- A Screwy Debate over a Gasoline Pipeline...
- Neglecting Hoarding; Blackmailing Allies...
- OPEC and Russia Wake Up Too Late (May 28...
- Disruptions Real and Fictitious; $300 Cr...
- The Venezuelan Disruption, the Iranian D...
- The Eighth Oil Price Spike in Fifty Year...
- The Politics of Gasoline Prices (April 3...
- Could Donald Trump "Trump" al-Falih? (Ap...
- Saudi Arabia Seizes Its Last Opportunity...
- Chaos Is Not a Policy (April 9, 2018)
- Avoiding Catastrophe: How to Fix the IMO...
- The IMO, 2020, and $200 Crude (March 26,...
- Divergence: Whither Crude Prices? (March...
- CERAWeek Exposes OPEC's Permian Achilles...
- A Lesson from History (March 5, 2018)
- Random Threads (February 26, 2018)
- Oil as an Agricultural Industry (Februar...
- Blame the VIX (February 12, 2018)
- Refining Economics (February 5, 2018)
- Oil and the Dollar (January 29, 2018)
- Dollar Weakness: Implications for Oil (J...
- The Difference of a Decade (January 15, ...
- Whither Prices? (January 8, 2018)
- 20 x 20: Vienna, We Have a Problem (Janu...