Publications: Notes at the Margin

BP Stands for "Bad Predictor" (February 13, 2023)


Most forecasters now expect the European Union to avoid recession in 2023. While interest rates will tighten, Consensus Economics’ most recent “Continuous Consensus Forecasts” all expect a modest recovery this year. These projections were submitted in late January or early February. The forecasts even see Germany enjoying some growth.


These expectations are amazing. The forecasts and actual economic performance reveal that high energy prices and sudden supply disruptions do not matter if economic policymakers enact compensating fiscal measures and windfall taxes and provide support for lower-income consumers. This development will change how fast countries move to combat global warming and hence accelerate their move off fossil fuels. A recent action by BP, historically the worst decision-making company in the global oil industry, confirms this outcome.


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