Publications: Notes at the Margin

A Fast Transition Moderates the Current Disruption (June 1, 2026)

 

The data make clear that this crisis is much different from past disruptions in several respects. First, the world’s leading oil importer, China, sharply cut its imports. Second, the United States boosted oil exports, helping to fill the supply-and-demand gap created by the war in Iran. Import reductions and inventory draws by other nations have further moderated the war’s impact. Lastly, many of the more vulnerable nations have embarked on intensive efforts to reduce or end oil and LNG imports. Some of those transitions will be temporary. But others could produce significant permanent reductions in oil and gas consumption.

 

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