Publications: Notes at the Margin
The Venezuelan Disruption, the Iranian Disruption Myth, and Untrustworthy Promises (May 14, 2018)
President Trump reinstated sanctions on Iran last week. In response, the jackals in the news media and on Wall Street immediately blamed the oil price rise on "expectations of future market disruptions." Everyone was wrong about this. At this juncture, Dated Brent could reach $120 per barrel by mid-summer or go even higher. Retail gasoline prices by the end of August might approach $4 per gallon. (They are currently $2.80.) Venezuela, not the prospective sanctions on Iran, will cause the increase. The collapse of oil production there—the total collapse—may be just weeks away.
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- Notes at the Margin
- Dominating the Energy Dominator; OPEC+'s...
- Noise Trading and the Direction of Oil P...
- Too Late? (November 18, 2019)
- Rethinking Energy Security (November 11,...
- Irrelevant Oil: Implications (November 4...
- Reliable Suppliers; IMO 2020 Impacts: Ma...
- Recession Avoided (October 21, 2019)
- The Midland Crunch (October 14, 2019)
- Raising Rivals' Costs (October 7, 2019)
- The Saudi Success, The California Except...
- No Time for Scenarios; The Diesel Story ...
- Disruptions: Lessons from the Past (Note...
- Here We Go Again; The Slow, Slower, and ...
- Kleptocratic Energy Policy: Ugly Consequ...
- IMO 2020: Supply, Demand, Speculation, 2...
- Forecast Often, Implications of Petro De...
- Implications of Kleptocratic US Energy P...
- The Saudi Gambit (August 12, 2019)
- Oil Markets: Not for the Timid (August 5...
- California Asserts Command (July 29, 201...
- Too Early to Tell (July 22, 2019)
- Oversupplied? (July 15, 2019)
- OPEC's Possible Death Spiral: The Tin An...
- Getting Causality Wrong (July 1, 2019)
- Too Much Gasoline (June 24, 2019)
- Look East Young Man (and Woman), Look Ea...
- The Global Gasoline Surplus (June 10, 20...
- Asia's Emergence (June 3, 2019)
- The Trade War: A Seemingly Silent Chines...
- Analysis Vacuum -- China Oil Price Domin...
- Oil to Natural Gas Parity (May 13, 2019)
- What's with Oil? (May 6, 2019)
- Deja Vu All Over Again (April 29, 2019)
- Santayana Moments (April 22, 2019)
- IMO 2020: Appearance of First Market Imp...
- IMO 2020 Price Impact Forecasts... (Apri...
- Sanctions on Iran... (April 1, 2019)
- In Denial (March 25, 2019)
- The Oil Industry Sees $100 Crude Coming ...
- US Future Crude Production: An Inconveni...
- The Long-Term Implications of Trump's Oi...
- Crude Oil Prices: Where Now? (February 2...
- Confused (February 18, 2019)
- Volatility Matters (February 11, 2019)
- Oil Markets in 2019 and 2020: No Feasibl...
- China's Threat to Refining Margins/Will ...
- Fracking's Achilles' Heel... (January 21...
- Hook to OPEC's Rescue (January 14, 2019)
- For the Lack of a Nail (January 7, 2019)
- What Ails Oil? (December 31, 2018)
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals III (Dece...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals II (Decem...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals (December...
- Revenge of the Quants: Robert Mertons' O...
- Is There a Feasbile Solution to Product ...
- Blindsided by Gasoline: IMO 2020 Preview...
- Sanctions Surprise (November 5, 2018)
- The US at the IMO (October 29, 2018)
- The Aftermath (October 22, 2018)
- From London to Denver (October 15, 2018)
- A Policy Too Far? (October 8, 2018)
- US Iran Sanctions, OPEC Surplus Capacity...
- Designing Circuit Breakers for IMO 2020 ...
- Emerging Markets Again... (September 17,...
- The Emerging Market Threat (September 10...
- Quick Thoughts (September 4, 2018)
- Gasoline Use: Misunderstood (August 27, ...
- Hedge Now! (August 20, 2018)
- IMO 2020: Worst-Case Scenario for Retail...
- Energy in the Crosshairs (August 6, 2018...
- Distillate/Diesel: A Spike in the Offing...
- The SPR Popgun; European Tariffs Could T...
- US Independent Producers: The Next Victi...
- Trump, Tweets, Trade (July 9, 2018)
- Panic at the White House (July 2, 2018)
- OPEC's Decision; Rules of Thumb and IMO ...
- The Calm Before the Storm (June 18, 2018...
- A Screwy Debate over a Gasoline Pipeline...
- Neglecting Hoarding; Blackmailing Allies...
- OPEC and Russia Wake Up Too Late (May 28...
- Disruptions Real and Fictitious; $300 Cr...
- The Venezuelan Disruption, the Iranian D...
- The Eighth Oil Price Spike in Fifty Year...
- The Politics of Gasoline Prices (April 3...
- Could Donald Trump "Trump" al-Falih? (Ap...
- Saudi Arabia Seizes Its Last Opportunity...
- Chaos Is Not a Policy (April 9, 2018)
- Avoiding Catastrophe: How to Fix the IMO...
- The IMO, 2020, and $200 Crude (March 26,...
- Divergence: Whither Crude Prices? (March...
- CERAWeek Exposes OPEC's Permian Achilles...
- A Lesson from History (March 5, 2018)
- Random Threads (February 26, 2018)
- Oil as an Agricultural Industry (Februar...
- Blame the VIX (February 12, 2018)
- Refining Economics (February 5, 2018)
- Oil and the Dollar (January 29, 2018)
- Dollar Weakness: Implications for Oil (J...
- The Difference of a Decade (January 15, ...
- Whither Prices? (January 8, 2018)
- 20 x 20: Vienna, We Have a Problem (Janu...