Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Venezuelan Disruption, the Iranian Disruption Myth, and Untrustworthy Promises (May 14, 2018)


President Trump reinstated sanctions on Iran last week. In response, the jackals in the news media and on Wall Street immediately blamed the oil price rise on "expectations of future market disruptions." Everyone was wrong about this. At this juncture, Dated Brent could reach $120 per barrel by mid-summer or go even higher. Retail gasoline prices by the end of August might approach $4 per gallon. (They are currently $2.80.) Venezuela, not the prospective sanctions on Iran, will cause the increase. The collapse of oil production there—the total collapse—may be just weeks away.


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