Publications: Notes at the Margin

Fracking's Achilles' Heel, IMO 2020 Crude Price Forecasts, and the Government Shutdown (January 21, 2019)


The decline in speculative interest in oil will probably create a serious problem for some independent producers because these firms need to hedge some or all incremental output against price declines. Declining interest in oil will raise the cost of hedging, possibly putting it out of reach of some firms. This is fracking’s Achilles' heel. We also cover oil price forecasts in light of the coming IMO 2020 rule implementation and the possible implications of a global loss of confidence in the US economy if the government closure continues.


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