Publications: Notes at the Margin

Crude Oil Prices: Where Now? (February 25, 2019)



Crude oil prices have gone up thirty-seven percent from their Christmas week lows. Many analysts, company representatives, and OPEC officials see them rising further. The 1.2-million-barrels-per-day cut in oil production instituted in January by OPEC members and other countries (OPEC+) has encouraged these views. Investors seem to agree. The share price of our oil-price talisman, the BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT), has been bid up from $17 at the end of 2018 to $26.50 Friday. The question is, can prices rise further? We think they can, and we offer three reasons for this assessment.


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