Publications: Notes at the Margin

Blindsided by Gasoline: IMO 2020 Preview (November 12, 2018)


Those who watch the oil market have been blindsided by the market equivalent of a fully loaded sixteen-wheeler or even a twenty-four-wheeler. The "truck" was likely driven by Gary Heminger, Greg Garland, or Joseph Gorder. These individuals are, respectively, the chief executive officers of Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Valero. Their firms' combined market capitalization is around $100 billion. They own refining capacity totaling more than sixteen million barrels per day, almost twenty percent of world capability. So, why were individuals who follow the international oil market blindsided? Because they seem to have forgotten that markets need buyers and sellers. All their attention goes to the sellers when today it should be going to the buyers, especially refiners.


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