Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Calm Before the Storm (June 18, 2018)


In our view, the issue is not whether higher prices are on the horizon but when the increases will begin. As explained in this report, the raises are beyond the control of oil-exporting or consuming countries. No amount of talking will bring them down. Neither will higher production from OPEC or non-OPEC countries. The next eighteen months will be characterized by three periods. The first we call “OPEC’s Obsequious Period,” the second the “Maduro/Iran/Etc. Supply Squeeze,” and the third the “Runup to IMO 2020 Squeeze.”


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