Publications: Notes at the Margin

US Independent Producers: The Next Victims of the Trade War? (July 16, 2018)


The trade war between China and the United States could soon claim a new group of victims—US independent oil producers—while strengthening US refiners. Economic theory buttressed by strong historical evidence predicts that retaliatory actions by China could soon slow or shut drilling in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and the Permian Basin by driving US domestic crude prices down sharply while perhaps allowing US refiners to double their margins.


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