Publications: Notes at the Margin

This Time Will Be Different (October 16, 2023)

 

Petroleum and perhaps natural gas could become collateral damage of Israel’s war with Hamas along with the thousands of Palestinians. The petroleum economy will fall victim if the war foments widespread public anger across the Middle East, ire that rises to or beyond the magnitude of the 2010 “Arab Spring.” The disruptions, if large enough, could force Middle East oil-exporting countries to limit oil shipments and precipitate substantive price increases. The higher prices would likely accelerate the transition of major petroleum and natural gas users to renewables or even back to coal. The war’s long-term economic fallout for Middle East oil exporters could be catastrophic.

 

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