Publications: Notes at the Margin

Déjà Vu All Over Again (April 29, 2019)


Berra’s "déjà vu" line applies to recent events in the oil market. In particular, the consequences of the United States now denying all exemptions to sanctions on importing Iranian oil, a Trump policy decision announced April 22 by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. These market consequences are eerily comparable to those of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990. While Pompeo would likely object to being labeled the twenty-first century's Saddam Hussein, his actions may ultimately have the same effect as the embargo imposed by the United States, members of the European Union, and most Asian countries on exports of Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude following the 1990 attack.


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