Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Global Policy Vacuum: Hoarding (April 20, 2026)

“Just because it looks like we’re going in the wrong direction

doesn’t mean that’s the direction we are going.”^{^[i]}

The words above were uttered by Chris Wright, the US Secretary of Energy. While he most certainly did not admit it, they succinctly summarized the state of US energy policy today amid the worst oil crisis since World War II. Wright spoke one day before Iran announced it would open the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic. His comments point to the utter bankruptcy of US leadership, even though oil prices dropped dramatically with the news.

Members of the “oil market choir,” composed of analysts at banks and consulting firms who normally rush to opine on such events, were amazingly silent. None of the regulars who have, until recently, offered forecasts of the war’s market impact seems to have said anything. After an extensive search, we could only find this quote on MarketWatch from Thomas Shipp, who writes at LPL Financial: “I don’t see us going back to $55-$60 a barrel for oil overnight.”[ii]

Hardly a daring forecast. We suspect the absence of comment reflected the fact that the price drop stemmed from liquidations by money managers, a.k.a. speculators, who were very long oil futures, according to our current data.

The choir’s silence reflects several uncertainties. Information on the long-term damage to production facilities in the Persian Gulf is still incomplete. Information on the war’s impact on global oil and LNG demand is also incomplete, although many are beginning to write about “demand destruction.” Analysts and market participants are also unclear about the duration and extent of the Hormuz opening (which turned out to be 24 hours), and discussion of oil hoarding has become more widespread.

However, it is the policy vacuum in Washington that seems to be exerting the most influence.

[i] “Extra Bonus Quote of the Day,” Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire, April 14, 2026 [https://tinyurl.com/5h7s6cat].

[ii] Isabel Wang and Myra P. Saefong, “Oil prices end at 5-week lows after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open. How soon could they return to prewar levels?” MarketWatch, April 17, 2026 [http://bit.ly/4tPJ9kK].

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