Publications: Notes at the Margin

Indicators of Lost Confidence (October 28, 2024)

 

This report first broached the possibility of markets losing confidence in oil-exporting countries’ ability to support oil prices more than two months ago. In this report, we present data that show how the independents responded to market uncertainty on two previous occasions. During these events, prices eventually fell and fell sharply. We also show that current inventory data indicate a large loss in confidence in OPEC+. Given the sector’s expansion, the market seems poised for another substantial price decline unless the key oil exporters take sharp, effective action.

 

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