Publications: Notes at the Margin

Blame Price Volatility for Low Stocks and High Prices (November 9, 2026)

 

Senior executives from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Saudi Aramco have chastised the world over the last month regarding low crude oil inventories. For example, ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber told conference attendees in late October that “the world has eroded its supply buffers by draining nearly 1 billion oil barrels from global ?inventories since the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted shipping ‌through the Strait of Hormuz.”[i] Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, speaking at EIG’s Energy Intelligence Forum, also commented on the low stocks, noting that “replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years” and declaring that the current supply resilience cushion “is scarily thin.”[ii]

 

Both are correct. World crude stocks are much lower thanks to the drawdown caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran. However, market participants may ignore their calls to replenish stocks for this simple reason: neither CEO has ever had to meet a margin call.


[i] “World’s energy supply buffers have been eroded, ADNOC CEO says,” Reuters, November 2, 2026 [https://tinyurl.com/ycyxw4a3].

[ii] Jill Junnola, “Aramco’s Nasser Says Saudi Capacity Intact, Stocks Hitting ‘Stress Level,’” Energy Intelligence, October 5, 2026 [https://tinyurl.com/4u2duhzu].

 

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