Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Market that Did Not Bark (November 2, 2026)

 

This report covers two subjects. First, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright did right by authorizing a release of heating oil from the East Coast reserve. While the amount was small compared to the global market, it was large in the futures market that sets distillate prices. Wright deserves credit for his action.

In the second part, we look at natural rubber’s loss of market share to synthetic rubber, which began in 1942 when Japanese troops seized major Asian sources of plantation-grown rubber. Those seizures forced the US to accelerate synthetic rubber production, which now accounts for two-thirds of the market. Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exporters may face a similar market-share loss if the Iran war continues to make Persian Gulf oil and LNG supplies undependable or unaffordable.

 

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