Publications: Notes at the Margin

The United States as the Dowager Nation; Long-Term Prospects for Oil (March 3, 2025)

 

Donald Trump has made the United States a dowager nation. Merriam-Webster defines a dowager as “a widow in the enjoyment of some property or a title that has come to her from a deceased husband.” Numerous Victorian-era novels describe well-placed English dowagers who struggle to maintain their grand estates after their provider spouses die. Today, the proof of similar events in the real world lies in the ruins of once-grand residences and beautiful gardens whose owners could not afford the upkeep.

 

The United States economy faces the same fate. Much of the world may suffer as well. President Trump has inherited a growing economy very like those nineteenth-century wives were bequeathed seemingly flourishing properties. In the novels, the dowagers discover, much to their horror, that their lands are saddled with huge debts. In response, they fire their gardeners and groundskeepers, sell off livestock, and cut the household staff from fifty to five. They sell their silver, their paintings by Gainsborough and Turner, and their furnishings. They also try to make deals with local businesses to arrest their decline. Ultimately, though, they fail.

 

Donald Trump confronts a $37 trillion national debt.[i] Budget advisers warn that the deficit will keep rising, especially if the president’s first-term tax cuts are extended as he would prefer. Like the desperate dowagers, he has turned to a businessperson, Elon Musk, to address the government’s money problems. Since then, thousands have been fired, including essential workers like the hard-pressed firefighters employed by the US Forest Service.[ii] Meanwhile, the president rewards the executives and companies that genuflect by doing business with the Trump Group. Some would call this “crony capitalism.”

 

Here, we offer evidence that increasing corruption has led to lower growth in several countries, while nations that root out exploitation have enjoyed greater growth. The data suggest an extreme increase in US corruption could cut US growth by two percent within two or three years. In addition, the Trump-led trade war could depress global growth by one or two percent, again within two or three years. This could result in a reduction of two to four million barrels per day in world oil consumption from projected levels.

 

To receive the full report along with future issues of Notes at the Margin, please Contact Us or send us an Information Request for subscription information.