Publications: Notes at the Margin
Oil: Busted by a Few GBU-57A/B MOPs (June 30, 2025)
President Trump ended the oil market uncertainty on June 21, 2025, by dropping a few “bunker busting” GBU-57A/B MOPs on Iran’s nuclear sites and then demanding that Israel and Iran stop fighting. The conflict ceased, the threat of Iran interfering with shipments through the Gulf of Hormuz vanished, and calm returned. Trump even suggested he would lift sanctions on Iran’s crude oil sales but then withdrew the offer when Iran’s ayatollah refused to do as he instructed.
Whether the peace will last is unknowable. For the moment, however, the oil market’s concerns have quieted.
To receive the full report along with future issues of Notes at the Margin, please Contact Us or send us an Information Request for subscription information.
- Notes at the Margin
- Distillate Squeeze (July 14, 2025)
- Trump's Big Beautiful Bill (July 7, 2025...
- Busted by a Few GBU-57A/B MOPs (June 30,...
- The Risk Premium vs. Hoarding (June 23, ...
- Yet Another Disruption (June 16, 2025)
- Contaminated Oil Market Data (June 9, 20...
- The End of US Energy Dominance? (June 2,...
- The Long-Term Outlook (May 19, 2025)
- The Next Energy Crisis? (May 12, 2025)
- Oil Markets - Leading Indicator of Reces...
- Diesel Use - Trade War Victim? (May 27, ...
- Crude Oil Markets - Most Competitive in ...
- Why Forecast? (April 21, 2025)
- A Crashingcycle for Oil and Natural Gas ...
- The G1 Strikes (April 7, 2025)
- The US Gamble vs. the World's Project In...
- Looking Short Term (March 24, 2025)
- Democracies Required by Oil Producers fo...
- Energy Capitulation (March 10, 2025)
- The United States as the Dowager Nation ...
- Petroleum Marketers and Price Reporting ...
- Donald Trump's Oil Conundrum (February 1...
- Donald Trump: The Disrupter (February 10...
- Uncertainty and the Collectivization of ...
- G1 and the New Third Rail of US Politics...
- Biden's Oil Market Disruption (January 2...
- Consequences (January 13, 2025)
- Oil and Gas Futures Markets -- Still Nee...
- Do Not Be Blind (December 23, 2024)
- MEGA - Making Exxon Great Again (Decembe...
- Oil Equities: Penny Stocks? (December 9,...
- The G1 (December 2, 2024)
- The Hallucinations of Oil Market Watcher...
- Who Will Buy My Oil? (November 18, 2024)
- Protectionism - Commodities Lose (Novemb...
- Aramco's China Dream... (November 4, 202...
- Indicators of Lost Confidence (October 2...
- The Apparent Failing of KILL (October 21...
- Energy Futures Markets: Economic Terrori...
- No Rush to Buy Crude (October 7, 2024)
- The Squeeze on Producers Intensifies (Se...
- Further Loss of Confidence (September 23...
- Inside the Oil Silo (September 16, 2024)
- No Confidence... (September 9, 2024)
- Inventories, Oil Consumption, and Crude ...
- Money Managers Rule Today (August 12, 20...
- Close the Exits (August 5, 2024)
- The End of the Asian Premium (July 29, 2...
- What Determines Oil Prices? (July 22, 20...
- Houston: A Canary in the Coal Mine (July...
- The US Supremes: Voting for Low Oil Pric...
- The Dollar, US Energy Trade Surplus, and...
- When in Need Manipulate (June 24, 2024)
- Forecasting Wars (June 17, 2024)
- Stagnating Gasoline Use (June 10, 2024)
- Zero Sum Game: OPEC vs. Refiners (June 3...
- Biden/Birol Foil Andurand (May 28, 2024)
- Products Offer Little Support for Crude ...
- Stagnating Petroleum Demand (May 13, 202...
- The Accidental Informant (May 6, 2024)
- Austerity and Oil (April 29, 2024)
- A Sea Change for Oil? (April 22, 2024)
- The Economics of Just in Time Oil (April...
- Death and Taxes (April 8, 2024)
- Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflatio...
- A Sunset Industry (March 25, 2024)
- Deep in the Silo (March 18, 2024)
- What Commodity Supercycle? (March 11, 20...
- Liquidity, Margin Finance Risk, and Trad...
- The Random Accuracy of Long-Term Forecas...
- Oil's Third Rail (February 19, 2024)
- Buyer Pressure (February 12, 2024)
- Saudi Arabia's Capitulation (February 5,...
- A Speculative Market Disruption (January...
- Oil's Lost Its Mojo (January 22, 2024)
- WTI and Brent Driven by Dying Speculatio...
- 2024 Oil Markets: Reassertion of Adult S...
- The Texas Oil Price Killer (December 18,...
- The Texas Taxman vs. OPEC... (December 1...
- End in Sight (December 4, 2023)
- OPEC's Need (November 27, 2023)
- Chemistry Matters (November 20, 2023)
- Myths and Facts about Oil Prices (Novemb...
- Consequences of Economic Slowdown (Novem...
- Live by the Delta, Die by the Delta (Oct...
- The Key to Survival (October 23, 2023)
- This Time Will Be Different (October 16,...
- Exxon/Pioneer Merger: Big Trouble for OP...
- The FTC's Dereliction of Duty (October 2...
- Crude Oil: GameStopped? (September 25, 2...
- Mercantilism, China, and Oil (September ...
- The Bleak Future for Oil (September 4, 2...
- Oil's China Problem; The Californization...
- The Distillate Squeeze (August 21, 2023)
- Commodity Futures: No Longer an Asset Cl...
- OPEC+'s Unforced Errors (August 7, 2023)
- Saudi Seething (July 31, 2023)
- OPEC's Messaging Problem (July 24, 2023)
- Crude Oil Prices: Going Nowhere (July 17...
- Oil Market Observers as Rip van Winkles ...
- It's the Economy... (July 3, 2023)
- The Three I's: Inventories, Interest Rat...
- The Biden Transformation of the Global O...
- Saudi Arabia: Destroying the Market for ...
- Saudi Arabia: Petroleum's Biggest Threat...
- Greedflation, Speculation, and Stupidity...
- Refiners in Control (May 22, 2023)
- European Oil Majors: Following the Enron...
- Oil and the Law of One Price (May 8, 202...
- Economic Competition/Price Wars: Threat ...
- China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia: Dollar ...
- Options-Driven Brent Prices: The Abdulaz...
- Product Markets Matter (April 10, 2023)
- Those Who Don't Talk Know (April 3, 2023...
- Financial Contagion: A Threat to Oil's S...
- Petro Ostriches and Financial Contagion ...
- The US Summer Gasoline Season: Canceled ...
- Economic Threat of Energy Crises: Neutra...
- Leveraging Oligopsonistic Market Power t...
- Energy, China, Interest Rates (February ...
- BP Stands for Bad Predictor (February 13...
- Sharing the Revenue: Refiners Win, Crude...
- Crude Oil Price Suppression (January 30,...
- Electric Vehicle Adoption: Lessons from ...
- Disorderly Markets or Refiner Output Dis...
- Money Matters (January 9, 2023)
- 2023: Nothing Is Certain (December 19, 2...
- Elon Musk and Harold Hamm (December 12, ...
- What the IMO Giveth, the IMO Taketh (Dec...
- Stranding Less Crude (November 28, 2022)
- Arbitrage Works: Crisis Over? (November ...
- US Oil Minnows' Undercapitalization Thre...
- Oil and the Dollar: No Longer Countercyc...
- Crude Oil Buffer Stocks/Nonexistent Prod...
- The Biden Put (Ocdtober 24, 2022)
- It's the IMO, Not OPEC+ (October 17, 202...
- The Public and Political View: Oil Be Da...
- OPEC Intends to Strand... (October 3, 20...
- The Energy Economic Jigsaw Puzzle (Septe...
- Energy Policy Economic Ignorance (Septem...
- The Energy Credit Crunch (September 12, ...
- Repeating History (August 29, 2022)
- Deregulation, Drought, Central Banks, an...
- The Coming Winter from Hell (August 15, ...
- The IEA Strategic Stock Release (August ...
- The Manchin/Schumer Compromise (August 1...
- Implications of a Climate Emergency Decl...
- Curse of the Gods (July 18, 2022)
- Misunderstood: Economic Impacts of Energ...
- Gasoline, Auto Sales, and Recession (Jul...
- The Failure of Fossil Fuel Energy Policy...
- Forecast Validation (June 20, 2022)
- It's Refining, Stupid! (June 13, 2022)
- Economic Recessions: Historical Parallel...
- Petroanura (May 31, 3022
- Central Banks vs. Inflation: Oil Markets...
- For Want of a Drop (May 16, 2022)
- The Wolf Returns (May 9, 2022)
- Broken Arbitrage (May 2, 2022)
- Demand Destruction (April 25, 2022)
- The End of Oil Accelerates (April 18, 20...
- Avoiding Financial Contagion (April 11, ...
- The Petro Credit Crunch Avoided (April 4...
- The Prompt (Hoarding) Premiums (March 28...
- No Equilibrium Price for Crude Oil (Marc...
- Derivative-Caused Chaos (March 14, 2022)
- Oil Markets: 1990 Redux (March 7, 2022)
- Putin's Stranding of Fossil Fuels (Febru...
- Oil Markets: Being Ignored (February 21,...
- The Global Economy at a Tipping Point (F...
- AI Rules Oil Markets; Frackers Risk Anti...
- The Ukraine Problem: Europe Unprepared.....
- The CME Casino (January 24, 2022)
- An Energy Myth Destroyed (January 17, 20...
- Changing Oil Futures Market (January 10,...
- Killing the Oil Market, Killing Oil (Dec...
- Oil Markets: Shrinking (December 13, 202...
- Market Testing Forecasts (December 6, 20...
- November Massacre (November 29, 2021)
- Intervention Success: Lessons from the C...
- SPR: "We Hardly Knew Ye"
- The 2021 Energy Crisis: Impact on Asia (...
- Fiddling While Rome Burns (November 1, 2...
- Dangerous Forecasts and Alligators; Cush...
- Anniversary and Repeat (October 18, 2021...
- Implications of the 2022 Economic Recess...
- Turning Point (October 4, 2021)
- Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste (...
- Renewable Fuels Pass-Through Controversy...
- Oil: Excluded from the Commodity Supercy...
- Uncertain Conditions (September 7, 2021)
- Products Support Crude for Now (August 3...
- Monopsony vs. Oligopsony (August 23, 202...
- Marking Fifty Years of Energy Policy Dis...
- China's Economic Aggression; Derivative ...
- Hedging: Fracking CEOs Pay for Their Stu...
- Accelerating Oil's End (July 26, 2021)
- Unachievable (July 19, 2021)
- The Tin Lesson for Oil (July 12, 2021)
- A Tightening US Crude Market (July 5, 20...
- The RVO; May US Gasoline Consumption (Ju...
- Benign Neglect and the OPEC Carbon Fee (...
- Tables Turned (June 14, 2021)
- Blowback (June 7, 2021)
- Recovery in Oil Use Lags the Economy (Ju...
- Commodity Supercycle 2... (May 24, 2021)
- A US Floor Price for Crude (May 17, 2021...
- A Lesson from Excess Returns to Storage....
- Good News for the Economy... (May 3, 202...
- Petroleum in the Crosshairs (April 26, 2...
- The 2021 Gasoline Boom (April 19, 2021)
- Oil at the Precipice? (April 12, 2021)
- Pumping Crude; Oil Silos (April 5, 2021)
- The Cause of the Recent Price Swing (Mar...
- Dated Brent Is Artificial (March 22, 202...
- The Likely Impact (March 15, 2021)
- OPEC's Big Mistake? (March 8, 2021)
- US Energy Dominance:
- A Disruption with a New Twist... (Februa...
- Forecasting Is Difficult, Especially abo...
- Bending the Forward Price Curve (Februar...
- Is the End of Oil Near? (February 1, 202...
- Weekly EIA Data: Reliable, Worthless, or...
- Too Big to Succeed (January 18, 2021)
- Did the Fracking Trap Catch the Oil Prod...
- The 2021 Oil Market as of January 1 (Jan...
- Timing Is Everything (December 21, 2020)
- Adapting: From Anticipatory to Responsiv...
- Fracking Comeback (December 7, 2020)
- The Oil Market's Dilemma (November 30, 2...
- Leave No One Behind (November 23, 2020)
- Excess Returns to Storage: The Informati...
- Impact of the Virus; Consequences of the...
- Defeated by the Virus (November 2, 2020)
- Panic at the Wellhead and the
- The Oil Industry and the Boeing 2707 (Oc...
- Long-Term Consequences of Short-Term Act...
- Too Much Oil? (October 5, 2020)
- September 22: A Day of Infamy for Hydroc...
- Fraud on the Market (September 21, 2020)
- The Transition: How Fast? (September 14,...
- US Frackers at Risk (September 8, 2020)
- Resurgent Oil Consumption: Real or Imagi...
- Airline Fuel Acquisition: Crushing Refin...
- Implications of Capital Starvation; Prof...
- OPEC+ Take Note (August 3, 2020)
- The Consequences of Political Incompeten...
- The Saudi Central Bank of Oil; Preparing...
- The IEA's Fantasy (July 13, 2020)
- CME: Exterminator of US Energy Independe...
- Hedging, Negative Oil Prices, and the US...
- Rose-Colored Glasses Removed II (June 22...
- Oil's Potential "Leasco" Implosion (June...
- Attempting to Defy Gravity and the Laws ...
- Rose-Colored Glasses Removed (June 1, 20...
- Irrational Exuberance? (May 26, 2020)
- Market-Moving Data... (May 18, 2020)
- Declining US Crude Supply (May 11, 2020)
- Dominance Denied: Possible Decline in US...
- Beyond Greed Redux (April 27, 2020)
- No Certainty (April 20, 2020)
- Toward Collapse (April 13, 2020)
- The Saudi Victory; Lessons from the Depr...
- No Place for Shale (March 30, 2020)
- An Industry on the Verge of Collapse (Ma...
- Negative Crude Prices? (March 16, 2020)
- Putin's Revenge on the US? (March 9, 202...
- Coronavirus Impact: Two Views (March 2, ...
- Products to Crude's Rescue (February 24,...
- COVID-19 Impact: Known Knowns (February ...
- Coronavirus Defeats Oil Producers (Febru...
- The Price Anchor (February 3, 2020)
- The Fossil Problem: Few Companies Will S...
- Frackers as a Force for Stability; IMO 2...
- Gasoline: The New Residual Fuel (January...
- China, IMO 2020, and Assassination (Janu...
- End-of-Year Thoughts (December 30, 2019)
- Crude: Getting Tighter (December 23, 201...
- The IMO Conundrum (December 16, 2019)
- Trying to Understand (December 9, 2019)
- Dominating the Energy Dominator; OPEC+'s...
- Noise Trading and the Direction of Oil P...
- Too Late? (November 18, 2019)
- Rethinking Energy Security (November 11,...
- Irrelevant Oil: Implications (November 4...
- Reliable Suppliers; IMO 2020 Impacts: Ma...
- Recession Avoided (October 21, 2019)
- The Midland Crunch (October 14, 2019)
- Raising Rivals' Costs (October 7, 2019)
- The Saudi Success, The California Except...
- No Time for Scenarios; The Diesel Story ...
- Disruptions: Lessons from the Past (Note...
- Here We Go Again; The Slow, Slower, and ...
- Kleptocratic Energy Policy: Ugly Consequ...
- IMO 2020: Supply, Demand, Speculation, 2...
- Forecast Often, Implications of Petro De...
- Implications of Kleptocratic US Energy P...
- The Saudi Gambit (August 12, 2019)
- Oil Markets: Not for the Timid (August 5...
- California Asserts Command (July 29, 201...
- Too Early to Tell (July 22, 2019)
- Oversupplied? (July 15, 2019)
- OPEC's Possible Death Spiral: The Tin An...
- Getting Causality Wrong (July 1, 2019)
- Too Much Gasoline (June 24, 2019)
- Look East Young Man (and Woman), Look Ea...
- The Global Gasoline Surplus (June 10, 20...
- Asia's Emergence (June 3, 2019)
- The Trade War: A Seemingly Silent Chines...
- Analysis Vacuum -- China Oil Price Domin...
- Oil to Natural Gas Parity (May 13, 2019)
- What's with Oil? (May 6, 2019)
- Deja Vu All Over Again (April 29, 2019)
- Santayana Moments (April 22, 2019)
- IMO 2020: Appearance of First Market Imp...
- IMO 2020 Price Impact Forecasts... (Apri...
- Sanctions on Iran... (April 1, 2019)
- In Denial (March 25, 2019)
- The Oil Industry Sees $100 Crude Coming ...
- US Future Crude Production: An Inconveni...
- The Long-Term Implications of Trump's Oi...
- Crude Oil Prices: Where Now? (February 2...
- Confused (February 18, 2019)
- Volatility Matters (February 11, 2019)
- Oil Markets in 2019 and 2020: No Feasibl...
- China's Threat to Refining Margins/Will ...
- Fracking's Achilles' Heel... (January 21...
- Hook to OPEC's Rescue (January 14, 2019)
- For the Lack of a Nail (January 7, 2019)
- What Ails Oil? (December 31, 2018)
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals III (Dece...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals II (Decem...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals (December...
- Revenge of the Quants: Robert Mertons' O...
- Is There a Feasbile Solution to Product ...
- Blindsided by Gasoline: IMO 2020 Preview...
- Sanctions Surprise (November 5, 2018)
- The US at the IMO (October 29, 2018)
- The Aftermath (October 22, 2018)
- From London to Denver (October 15, 2018)
- A Policy Too Far? (October 8, 2018)
- US Iran Sanctions, OPEC Surplus Capacity...
- Designing Circuit Breakers for IMO 2020 ...
- Emerging Markets Again... (September 17,...
- The Emerging Market Threat (September 10...
- Quick Thoughts (September 4, 2018)
- Gasoline Use: Misunderstood (August 27, ...
- Hedge Now! (August 20, 2018)
- IMO 2020: Worst-Case Scenario for Retail...
- Energy in the Crosshairs (August 6, 2018...
- Distillate/Diesel: A Spike in the Offing...
- The SPR Popgun; European Tariffs Could T...
- US Independent Producers: The Next Victi...
- Trump, Tweets, Trade (July 9, 2018)
- Panic at the White House (July 2, 2018)
- OPEC's Decision; Rules of Thumb and IMO ...
- The Calm Before the Storm (June 18, 2018...
- A Screwy Debate over a Gasoline Pipeline...
- Neglecting Hoarding; Blackmailing Allies...
- OPEC and Russia Wake Up Too Late (May 28...
- Disruptions Real and Fictitious; $300 Cr...
- The Venezuelan Disruption, the Iranian D...
- The Eighth Oil Price Spike in Fifty Year...
- The Politics of Gasoline Prices (April 3...
- Could Donald Trump "Trump" al-Falih? (Ap...
- Saudi Arabia Seizes Its Last Opportunity...
- Chaos Is Not a Policy (April 9, 2018)
- Avoiding Catastrophe: How to Fix the IMO...
- The IMO, 2020, and $200 Crude (March 26,...
- Divergence: Whither Crude Prices? (March...
- CERAWeek Exposes OPEC's Permian Achilles...
- A Lesson from History (March 5, 2018)
- Random Threads (February 26, 2018)
- Oil as an Agricultural Industry (Februar...
- Blame the VIX (February 12, 2018)
- Refining Economics (February 5, 2018)
- Oil and the Dollar (January 29, 2018)
- Dollar Weakness: Implications for Oil (J...
- The Difference of a Decade (January 15, ...
- Whither Prices? (January 8, 2018)
- 20 x 20: Vienna, We Have a Problem (Janu...