Publications: Notes at the Margin

Oil Chaos (October 19, 2026)

 

Rarely has a single sentence said everything so well.

 

“The profitability of Europe’s oil refineries has fallen sharply, raising the prospect of output cuts just as the continent faces soaring prices for refined products.”[i]

 

Verity Ratcliffe opened her October 17 Financial Times article with this line.

 

Just days before, the International Energy Agency’s members agreed to release another 100 million barrels from strategic stocks. The release included 20 million barrels of diesel from EU reserves.

 

Following the announcement, the IEA warned in its monthly Oil Market Report that “global diesel markets could remain tight well ?into next year.”[ii] Supplies will tighten further if refiners cut runs.

 

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