Publications: Notes at the Margin

No Future for Oil without Boots on the Ground (October 26, 2026)

 

The United States and its putative Arab allies should have recognized the ineffectiveness of aerial warfare by now. Success against Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen has not been achieved by bombing and is not likely to be going forward. Any escalation could prolong the war, further disrupt Middle East oil and gas supplies, and push global prices higher absent a ground invasion that crushes the Houthi rebels and Iranian hardliners.

 

Attempts to end the war have been made difficult by how easy it is to build inexpensive drones and the steady depletion of weapon stockpiles that cannot be easily replaced. The unfolding disaster in Kyiv caused by its lack of required missile and drone defenses previews the consequences for the Middle East if Iran and the Houthis are not neutralized quickly. An Iran crippled by bombing may still launch drone attacks that damage or destroy oil-producing or refining facilities. If desperate, the country could turn the Persian Gulf into a sea of oil, shutting down more than 2000 desalinization plants and crippling the entire area.[i]

 

Boots on the ground, probably more than 100,000 soldiers, seem required to terminate the threat.

 

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