Publications: Notes at the Margin

Analysis Vacuum -- China Oil Price Dominance (May 20, 2019)


Military academies emphasize history, along with science, mathematics, and foreign languages. At these institutions, future army, navy, and air force commanders study past strategies and actions to understand how battles are won or lost. The academy instructors stress this review of history in hopes that these fledgling military leaders will avoid the mistakes of their predecessors should they ever engage in battles or wars.


No such training is offered to oil market analysts, energy economists, or the consultants who write about petroleum commodity markets today. Among many in these groups, there seems to be no knowledge of past market behavior or historical economic trends. There is only ignorance. The consequence is a steady flow of drivel that creates real profit opportunities for those with a history-based grasp on how commodity markets work.


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