Publications: Notes at the Margin
The Distillate Squeeze (August 21, 2023)
The world confronts yet another fall and winter with potentially high distillate (heating oil/diesel) prices. From October 2023 to March 2024, we could see the highest diesel margins on record. A major hurricane that shuts down US Gulf Coast refineries could turn a terrible situation into a catastrophe. Retail diesel fuel consumers in certain areas could pay more than $10 per gallon.
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- Notes at the Margin
- A Sea Change for Oil? (April 22, 2024)
- The Economics of Just in Time Oil (April...
- Death and Taxes (April 8, 2024)
- Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflatio...
- A Sunset Industry (March 25, 2024)
- Deep in the Silo (March 18, 2024)
- What Commodity Supercycle? (March 11, 20...
- Liquidity, Margin Finance Risk, and Trad...
- The Random Accuracy of Long-Term Forecas...
- Oil's Third Rail (February 19, 2024)
- Buyer Pressure (February 12, 2024)
- Saudi Arabia's Capitulation (February 5,...
- A Speculative Market Disruption (January...
- Oil's Lost Its Mojo (January 22, 2024)
- WTI and Brent Driven by Dying Speculatio...
- 2024 Oil Markets: Reassertion of Adult S...
- The Texas Oil Price Killer (December 18,...
- The Texas Taxman vs. OPEC... (December 1...
- End in Sight (December 4, 2023)
- OPEC's Need (November 27, 2023)
- Chemistry Matters (November 20, 2023)
- Myths and Facts about Oil Prices (Novemb...
- Consequences of Economic Slowdown (Novem...
- Live by the Delta, Die by the Delta (Oct...
- The Key to Survival (October 23, 2023)
- This Time Will Be Different (October 16,...
- Exxon/Pioneer Merger: Big Trouble for OP...
- The FTC's Dereliction of Duty (October 2...
- Crude Oil: GameStopped? (September 25, 2...
- Mercantilism, China, and Oil (September ...
- The Bleak Future for Oil (September 4, 2...
- Oil's China Problem; The Californization...
- The Distillate Squeeze (August 21, 2023)
- Commodity Futures: No Longer an Asset Cl...
- OPEC+'s Unforced Errors (August 7, 2023)
- Saudi Seething (July 31, 2023)
- OPEC's Messaging Problem (July 24, 2023)
- Crude Oil Prices: Going Nowhere (July 17...
- Oil Market Observers as Rip van Winkles ...
- It's the Economy... (July 3, 2023)
- The Three I's: Inventories, Interest Rat...
- The Biden Transformation of the Global O...
- Saudi Arabia: Destroying the Market for ...
- Saudi Arabia: Petroleum's Biggest Threat...
- Greedflation, Speculation, and Stupidity...
- Refiners in Control (May 22, 2023)
- European Oil Majors: Following the Enron...
- Oil and the Law of One Price (May 8, 202...
- Economic Competition/Price Wars: Threat ...
- China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia: Dollar ...
- Options-Driven Brent Prices: The Abdulaz...
- Product Markets Matter (April 10, 2023)
- Those Who Don't Talk Know (April 3, 2023...
- Financial Contagion: A Threat to Oil's S...
- Petro Ostriches and Financial Contagion ...
- The US Summer Gasoline Season: Canceled ...
- Economic Threat of Energy Crises: Neutra...
- Leveraging Oligopsonistic Market Power t...
- Energy, China, Interest Rates (February ...
- BP Stands for Bad Predictor (February 13...
- Sharing the Revenue: Refiners Win, Crude...
- Crude Oil Price Suppression (January 30,...
- Electric Vehicle Adoption: Lessons from ...
- Disorderly Markets or Refiner Output Dis...
- Money Matters (January 9, 2023)
- 2023: Nothing Is Certain (December 19, 2...
- Elon Musk and Harold Hamm (December 12, ...
- What the IMO Giveth, the IMO Taketh (Dec...
- Stranding Less Crude (November 28, 2022)
- Arbitrage Works: Crisis Over? (November ...
- US Oil Minnows' Undercapitalization Thre...
- Oil and the Dollar: No Longer Countercyc...
- Crude Oil Buffer Stocks/Nonexistent Prod...
- The Biden Put (Ocdtober 24, 2022)
- It's the IMO, Not OPEC+ (October 17, 202...
- The Public and Political View: Oil Be Da...
- OPEC Intends to Strand... (October 3, 20...
- The Energy Economic Jigsaw Puzzle (Septe...
- Energy Policy Economic Ignorance (Septem...
- The Energy Credit Crunch (September 12, ...
- Repeating History (August 29, 2022)
- Deregulation, Drought, Central Banks, an...
- The Coming Winter from Hell (August 15, ...
- The IEA Strategic Stock Release (August ...
- The Manchin/Schumer Compromise (August 1...
- Implications of a Climate Emergency Decl...
- Curse of the Gods (July 18, 2022)
- Misunderstood: Economic Impacts of Energ...
- Gasoline, Auto Sales, and Recession (Jul...
- The Failure of Fossil Fuel Energy Policy...
- Forecast Validation (June 20, 2022)
- It's Refining, Stupid! (June 13, 2022)
- Economic Recessions: Historical Parallel...
- Petroanura (May 31, 3022
- Central Banks vs. Inflation: Oil Markets...
- For Want of a Drop (May 16, 2022)
- The Wolf Returns (May 9, 2022)
- Broken Arbitrage (May 2, 2022)
- Demand Destruction (April 25, 2022)
- The End of Oil Accelerates (April 18, 20...
- Avoiding Financial Contagion (April 11, ...
- The Petro Credit Crunch Avoided (April 4...
- The Prompt (Hoarding) Premiums (March 28...
- No Equilibrium Price for Crude Oil (Marc...
- Derivative-Caused Chaos (March 14, 2022)
- Oil Markets: 1990 Redux (March 7, 2022)
- Putin's Stranding of Fossil Fuels (Febru...
- Oil Markets: Being Ignored (February 21,...
- The Global Economy at a Tipping Point (F...
- AI Rules Oil Markets; Frackers Risk Anti...
- The Ukraine Problem: Europe Unprepared.....
- The CME Casino (January 24, 2022)
- An Energy Myth Destroyed (January 17, 20...
- Changing Oil Futures Market (January 10,...
- Killing the Oil Market, Killing Oil (Dec...
- Oil Markets: Shrinking (December 13, 202...
- Market Testing Forecasts (December 6, 20...
- November Massacre (November 29, 2021)
- Intervention Success: Lessons from the C...
- SPR: "We Hardly Knew Ye"
- The 2021 Energy Crisis: Impact on Asia (...
- Fiddling While Rome Burns (November 1, 2...
- Dangerous Forecasts and Alligators; Cush...
- Anniversary and Repeat (October 18, 2021...
- Implications of the 2022 Economic Recess...
- Turning Point (October 4, 2021)
- Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste (...
- Renewable Fuels Pass-Through Controversy...
- Oil: Excluded from the Commodity Supercy...
- Uncertain Conditions (September 7, 2021)
- Products Support Crude for Now (August 3...
- Monopsony vs. Oligopsony (August 23, 202...
- Marking Fifty Years of Energy Policy Dis...
- China's Economic Aggression; Derivative ...
- Hedging: Fracking CEOs Pay for Their Stu...
- Accelerating Oil's End (July 26, 2021)
- Unachievable (July 19, 2021)
- The Tin Lesson for Oil (July 12, 2021)
- A Tightening US Crude Market (July 5, 20...
- The RVO; May US Gasoline Consumption (Ju...
- Benign Neglect and the OPEC Carbon Fee (...
- Tables Turned (June 14, 2021)
- Blowback (June 7, 2021)
- Recovery in Oil Use Lags the Economy (Ju...
- Commodity Supercycle 2... (May 24, 2021)
- A US Floor Price for Crude (May 17, 2021...
- A Lesson from Excess Returns to Storage....
- Good News for the Economy... (May 3, 202...
- Petroleum in the Crosshairs (April 26, 2...
- The 2021 Gasoline Boom (April 19, 2021)
- Oil at the Precipice? (April 12, 2021)
- Pumping Crude; Oil Silos (April 5, 2021)
- The Cause of the Recent Price Swing (Mar...
- Dated Brent Is Artificial (March 22, 202...
- The Likely Impact (March 15, 2021)
- OPEC's Big Mistake? (March 8, 2021)
- US Energy Dominance:
- A Disruption with a New Twist... (Februa...
- Forecasting Is Difficult, Especially abo...
- Bending the Forward Price Curve (Februar...
- Is the End of Oil Near? (February 1, 202...
- Weekly EIA Data: Reliable, Worthless, or...
- Too Big to Succeed (January 18, 2021)
- Did the Fracking Trap Catch the Oil Prod...
- The 2021 Oil Market as of January 1 (Jan...
- Timing Is Everything (December 21, 2020)
- Adapting: From Anticipatory to Responsiv...
- Fracking Comeback (December 7, 2020)
- The Oil Market's Dilemma (November 30, 2...
- Leave No One Behind (November 23, 2020)
- Excess Returns to Storage: The Informati...
- Impact of the Virus; Consequences of the...
- Defeated by the Virus (November 2, 2020)
- Panic at the Wellhead and the
- The Oil Industry and the Boeing 2707 (Oc...
- Long-Term Consequences of Short-Term Act...
- Too Much Oil? (October 5, 2020)
- September 22: A Day of Infamy for Hydroc...
- Fraud on the Market (September 21, 2020)
- The Transition: How Fast? (September 14,...
- US Frackers at Risk (September 8, 2020)
- Resurgent Oil Consumption: Real or Imagi...
- Airline Fuel Acquisition: Crushing Refin...
- Implications of Capital Starvation; Prof...
- OPEC+ Take Note (August 3, 2020)
- The Consequences of Political Incompeten...
- The Saudi Central Bank of Oil; Preparing...
- The IEA's Fantasy (July 13, 2020)
- CME: Exterminator of US Energy Independe...
- Hedging, Negative Oil Prices, and the US...
- Rose-Colored Glasses Removed II (June 22...
- Oil's Potential "Leasco" Implosion (June...
- Attempting to Defy Gravity and the Laws ...
- Rose-Colored Glasses Removed (June 1, 20...
- Irrational Exuberance? (May 26, 2020)
- Market-Moving Data... (May 18, 2020)
- Declining US Crude Supply (May 11, 2020)
- Dominance Denied: Possible Decline in US...
- Beyond Greed Redux (April 27, 2020)
- No Certainty (April 20, 2020)
- Toward Collapse (April 13, 2020)
- The Saudi Victory; Lessons from the Depr...
- No Place for Shale (March 30, 2020)
- An Industry on the Verge of Collapse (Ma...
- Negative Crude Prices? (March 16, 2020)
- Putin's Revenge on the US? (March 9, 202...
- Coronavirus Impact: Two Views (March 2, ...
- Products to Crude's Rescue (February 24,...
- COVID-19 Impact: Known Knowns (February ...
- Coronavirus Defeats Oil Producers (Febru...
- The Price Anchor (February 3, 2020)
- The Fossil Problem: Few Companies Will S...
- Frackers as a Force for Stability; IMO 2...
- Gasoline: The New Residual Fuel (January...
- China, IMO 2020, and Assassination (Janu...
- End-of-Year Thoughts (December 30, 2019)
- Crude: Getting Tighter (December 23, 201...
- The IMO Conundrum (December 16, 2019)
- Trying to Understand (December 9, 2019)
- Dominating the Energy Dominator; OPEC+'s...
- Noise Trading and the Direction of Oil P...
- Too Late? (November 18, 2019)
- Rethinking Energy Security (November 11,...
- Irrelevant Oil: Implications (November 4...
- Reliable Suppliers; IMO 2020 Impacts: Ma...
- Recession Avoided (October 21, 2019)
- The Midland Crunch (October 14, 2019)
- Raising Rivals' Costs (October 7, 2019)
- The Saudi Success, The California Except...
- No Time for Scenarios; The Diesel Story ...
- Disruptions: Lessons from the Past (Note...
- Here We Go Again; The Slow, Slower, and ...
- Kleptocratic Energy Policy: Ugly Consequ...
- IMO 2020: Supply, Demand, Speculation, 2...
- Forecast Often, Implications of Petro De...
- Implications of Kleptocratic US Energy P...
- The Saudi Gambit (August 12, 2019)
- Oil Markets: Not for the Timid (August 5...
- California Asserts Command (July 29, 201...
- Too Early to Tell (July 22, 2019)
- Oversupplied? (July 15, 2019)
- OPEC's Possible Death Spiral: The Tin An...
- Getting Causality Wrong (July 1, 2019)
- Too Much Gasoline (June 24, 2019)
- Look East Young Man (and Woman), Look Ea...
- The Global Gasoline Surplus (June 10, 20...
- Asia's Emergence (June 3, 2019)
- The Trade War: A Seemingly Silent Chines...
- Analysis Vacuum -- China Oil Price Domin...
- Oil to Natural Gas Parity (May 13, 2019)
- What's with Oil? (May 6, 2019)
- Deja Vu All Over Again (April 29, 2019)
- Santayana Moments (April 22, 2019)
- IMO 2020: Appearance of First Market Imp...
- IMO 2020 Price Impact Forecasts... (Apri...
- Sanctions on Iran... (April 1, 2019)
- In Denial (March 25, 2019)
- The Oil Industry Sees $100 Crude Coming ...
- US Future Crude Production: An Inconveni...
- The Long-Term Implications of Trump's Oi...
- Crude Oil Prices: Where Now? (February 2...
- Confused (February 18, 2019)
- Volatility Matters (February 11, 2019)
- Oil Markets in 2019 and 2020: No Feasibl...
- China's Threat to Refining Margins/Will ...
- Fracking's Achilles' Heel... (January 21...
- Hook to OPEC's Rescue (January 14, 2019)
- For the Lack of a Nail (January 7, 2019)
- What Ails Oil? (December 31, 2018)
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals III (Dece...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals II (Decem...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals (December...
- Revenge of the Quants: Robert Mertons' O...
- Is There a Feasbile Solution to Product ...
- Blindsided by Gasoline: IMO 2020 Preview...
- Sanctions Surprise (November 5, 2018)
- The US at the IMO (October 29, 2018)
- The Aftermath (October 22, 2018)
- From London to Denver (October 15, 2018)
- A Policy Too Far? (October 8, 2018)
- US Iran Sanctions, OPEC Surplus Capacity...
- Designing Circuit Breakers for IMO 2020 ...
- Emerging Markets Again... (September 17,...
- The Emerging Market Threat (September 10...
- Quick Thoughts (September 4, 2018)
- Gasoline Use: Misunderstood (August 27, ...
- Hedge Now! (August 20, 2018)
- IMO 2020: Worst-Case Scenario for Retail...
- Energy in the Crosshairs (August 6, 2018...
- Distillate/Diesel: A Spike in the Offing...
- The SPR Popgun; European Tariffs Could T...
- US Independent Producers: The Next Victi...
- Trump, Tweets, Trade (July 9, 2018)
- Panic at the White House (July 2, 2018)
- OPEC's Decision; Rules of Thumb and IMO ...
- The Calm Before the Storm (June 18, 2018...
- A Screwy Debate over a Gasoline Pipeline...
- Neglecting Hoarding; Blackmailing Allies...
- OPEC and Russia Wake Up Too Late (May 28...
- Disruptions Real and Fictitious; $300 Cr...
- The Venezuelan Disruption, the Iranian D...
- The Eighth Oil Price Spike in Fifty Year...
- The Politics of Gasoline Prices (April 3...
- Could Donald Trump "Trump" al-Falih? (Ap...
- Saudi Arabia Seizes Its Last Opportunity...
- Chaos Is Not a Policy (April 9, 2018)
- Avoiding Catastrophe: How to Fix the IMO...
- The IMO, 2020, and $200 Crude (March 26,...
- Divergence: Whither Crude Prices? (March...
- CERAWeek Exposes OPEC's Permian Achilles...
- A Lesson from History (March 5, 2018)
- Random Threads (February 26, 2018)
- Oil as an Agricultural Industry (Februar...
- Blame the VIX (February 12, 2018)
- Refining Economics (February 5, 2018)
- Oil and the Dollar (January 29, 2018)
- Dollar Weakness: Implications for Oil (J...
- The Difference of a Decade (January 15, ...
- Whither Prices? (January 8, 2018)
- 20 x 20: Vienna, We Have a Problem (Janu...