Publications: Notes at the Margin

Dominance Denied: Possible Decline in US Crude Output (May 4, 2020)


US crude oil producers face the threat of significant, forced production cuts. Output may need to decline by as much as 4.2 million barrels per day or thirty-four percent from the January/February levels of 12.4 million barrels per day. The output cut could result due to a lack of outlets for US crude exports, a decrease in demand for US product exports, and a drop in US consumption. These factors might create severe bottlenecks across the US logistical system. The possibility of a forced shutdown of US production leads us put forward output projections much lower than those published by Rystad Energy and others.


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