Publications: Notes at the Margin

A Trade War and a "Made in Canada" Energy Policy (August 17, 2026)

 

This week we focus first on the United States’ trade battle with Canada. The war could intensify this week, as President Trump’s new 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods are set to take effect on August 19. Canada could retaliate by imposing heavy export duties on crude oil sent to the US. While such a tax is illegal under current trade agreements, the action would mirror the unlawful trade acts committed by the Trump administration. If the oil tax is implemented, it could push US gasoline prices up in states critical to the Republican hope of retaining majorities in Congress.

 

Our second topic is the uncertainty pervading oil markets, specifically how much oil is reaching markets from the Persian Gulf, market stability if the Iran war continues, and the circumstances in particular markets. Our data, for example, indicate that distillate will be strained by November at the latest.

 

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