Publications: Notes at the Margin

Death and Taxes; Tipping Point Nonsense; Prohibition, Unleaded, and the Energy Transition (April 8, 2024)

 

This Notes at the Margin covers three topics. First, in “Death and Taxes,” we explain that certain things, such as tax burdens and death, are inevitable in life. In the case of oil prices, the “inevitable” aspect is that the current price increases will continue until the fall, perhaps reaching $110 per barrel. Then, just as spring flowers follow early rains, the taxes imposed on inventories by Texas will bring prices down. This tax impact is generally ignored even though prices consistently tend to fall toward year-end as refiners and terminals in the state dump stocks.

 

Second, we examine the nonsense being circulated by Bloomberg Green regarding “tipping points” for electric vehicle adoptions. The analysts at the International Institute for Applied Systems have frequently written about the domino effect that occurs when a transition passes a certain point. The Bloomberg writers assert that many countries have reached this milestone, implying that the era of internal combustion engines is passing. As we note, others made the same claim years ago regarding nuclear power generation. Had they been correct, we would all be enjoying plentiful, cheap, emissions-free electricity today.

 

Finally, the individuals trying most aggressively to limit greenhouse gas emissions harangue us almost daily about how society must change to limit global warming impacts. Increasingly, they sound like the temperance groups that collectively got the Volstead Act passed to enforce alcohol prohibition in the United States. Those pushing a dry country failed to understand how the wider public thought and felt. The extremist backers trying to eliminate harmful emissions today are making the same mistake. Unfortunately, their efforts will fail, just as prohibition did, if nations attempt to follow their hard line.

 

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