Publications: Notes at the Margin

OPEC+ Take Note: US Production Is Back; US Consumption Is Not (August 3, 2020)


PKVerleger LLC's calculations of weekly US oil production are not "estimates" but facts.


Our calculation for April 2020 published the second week of May was 12.01 million barrels per day. The US Department of Energy reported April production sixty days later of 12.06 million barrels per day. The difference was 0.4 percent.


Our calculation for May 2020 published the second week of June was 9.96 million barrels per day. The DOE reported May production Friday, July 31, also sixty days later, of 10.001 million barrels per day, again an error of 0.4 percent.


These DOE data validate our approach. The DOE will report June production on August 31, 2020, of 10.4 million barrels per day. It will report July 2020 production on September 30, 2020, of 10.7 to 10.9 million barrels per day, depending on the weekly data to be released on August 5, 2020.


US production is returning to January levels. US consumption will remain depressed, though, because the CARES Act has expired and efforts to extend it have failed. The OPEC+ members need to note this because they once again face a choice between market share and price.


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