Publications: Notes at the Margin

Unintended Consequences (September 14, 2026)

 

History does not repeat, but it rhymes.

 

This item was published on September 10, 2026:

 

Chinese independent refiners have been rushing to secure crude from West Africa, Canada and South ‌America in recent weeks, supporting spot premiums at multi-month highs as they replace thinning Iranian and Russian supplies, trade sources and analysts said [emphasis ours].[i]

This item was published in The Washington Post on December 10, 1979:

 

In recent days, the officials said the United States had found “strong evidence” that Japanese firms have shown what one source called “unseemly haste” in rushing to buy the oil rejected by the United States on the spot market at prices of almost $40 a barrel [emphasis ours].”[ii]

Notice that 47 years separate the two quotes. However, the word “rushing” appears in both, and both reports coincide with the actions taken by crude oil purchasers suddenly cut off from regular suppliers.

 

Both comments also correspond to substantial crude price increases. These doubled in 1979. In 2026, they have only risen by around 30% so far.

 

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