Publications: Notes at the Margin

Stumping the So-Called Oil Experts (October 6, 2025)

 

The Energy Intelligence Group will convene its “Energy Intelligence Forum” in London in two weeks. The meeting is the rebranded version of EIG’s “Oil & Money” conference and follows Argus Media’s “Global Markets” and S&P Global’s “APPEC 2025” in September.

Although they feature different speakers, these conferences share one characteristic: they are entirely inward-looking. Essentially, their organizers have formed a friendly version of “circular firing squads,”[i] where those from the industry speak only to those in the industry and a diminishing number of outsiders who focus on energy.

This “navel gazing” can be traced in part to the conference organizers being dominated by their corporate patrons. The organizers invite speakers who will please sponsors. A former editor of the International Herald Tribune once explained to us that The New York Times stopped sponsoring the “Oil & Money” conference because its list of backers and agenda had become too narrowly focused.

The narrow, introspective bent of energy-related forums could threaten the profitability and possibly the survival of energy firms by reinforcing the attendees’ conventional beliefs and influencing their strategic decisions at a time of dramatic, groundbreaking change in the world economy.

On Sunday, key OPEC+ members agreed to increase production modestly by 137,000 barrels per day.[ii] Along with others, the International Energy Agency’s “experts” have warned that more production will depress prices. They would be correct if global energy markets functioned as they have in the past. However, China has reshaped oil market behavior as it seeks to undermine the US economy by keeping oil and fuel prices high, and, as we discuss below, attacking our LNG and agricultural sectors.

Of course, China says nothing about its plans. While President Trump and his Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce trumpet actions designed to bring China to its knees, the Chinese leaders stay mum while playing those in the US government for fools. The attendees at the various energy conferences risk being fools as well unless they emerge from their silos. In this regard, the forum organizers are giving no help.

 

To receive the full report along with future issues of Notes at the Margin, please Contact Us or send us an Information Request for subscription information.