Publications: Notes at the Margin

Not Prepared (March 2, 2026)

 

Early in the morning on Saturday, February 28, Israel and the United States began bombing Iran. The attacks marked the start of a war in which the US and Israeli leaders have declared their intention to overturn Iran’s government.

 

This war will likely not be short because the attackers will not, at least at this juncture, be sending troops into Iran, and no government has ever been ousted by air attacks alone. Instead, the air war will continue, matched by naval and/or missile skirmishes around the Strait of Hormuz. The battle could be prolonged, according to POLITICO, because the United States is already short of weapons due to its efforts to secure the Red Sea from Yemeni attacks and protect Israel from previous Iranian missile and drone launches.[i]

 

The oil industry is not prepared for this. Oil prices will head sharply higher Monday morning unless Iran surrenders immediately. The sky is literally the limit in the short run.

 

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