Publications: Notes at the Margin

Implications of US Political Chaos for Oil and the Economy (January 19, 2026)

 

Stein’s law holds that “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Herbert Stein, an economic adviser to Presidents Nixon and Ford, coined the adage in 1986. Stein was a “true conservative,” and, were he alive today, he would almost certainly be commenting unfavorably on President Trump’s actions. Today, we apply Stein’s law to the chaos in Washington, DC, during the first two weeks of 2026.

 

The frenetic pace of such events cannot continue indefinitely. According to Stein’s law, they will not. Still, they may persist for some time and eventually degrade the US economy. The energy sector, among others, could be hard hit because its investments are large and require long-term market stability to achieve a positive return.

 

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