Publications: Notes at the Margin

China Keeping Prices Stable to Maintain Exports; EPA Foiling Trump's Promise of Low Gasoline Prices (September 22, 2025)

 

At a press conference near the end of his state visit to the United Kingdom, President Trump stated, “If the oil price comes down, very simply, Russia will settle” [the war in Ukraine].[i] China is making sure oil prices do not come down. Its leaders have realized that keeping prices at current levels will help increase its exports to oil-exporting nations, including Russia. This is China’s stealth weapon in its trade war with the United States. Chinese exports have risen in 2025 from 2024 despite extremely aggressive US trade measures against the country. By boosting its crude inventories to double those of any other nation, China is supporting oil prices, which supports its domestic producers and its trade with other countries. China, in short, is “trumping” the US president’s efforts to bring oil prices down.

 

Unwittingly perhaps, the Trump Environmental Protection Agency has begun collaborating with China on this by seeking changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard program. If its proposal becomes law, it will put further upward pressure on oil prices.

 

To receive the full report along with future issues of Notes at the Margin, please Contact Us or send us an Information Request for subscription information.