Publications: Papers

Blundering to $300 per Barrel (The International Economy, Summer 2011 Issue)

Before the decade ends, US consumers will be paying $10 per gallon for gasoline or $0.50 per gallon for E85 (an 85:15 ethanol/gasoline blend). Before 2021, consumers in Europe will see diesel prices rise from the current €1.40 per liter level to €2.50 if the euro/dollar exchange rate stays where it is and taxes do not increase. Before the decade closes, US consumers will also pay less than $2 per gallon for gasoline as their European counterparts pay under €1 per liter, again assuming no tax or exchange rate changes. These price peaks and troughs could even occur in the same year! In this paper, published is the Summer 2011 issue of The International Economy, Dr. Verleger examines the petroleum price cycles likely to occur between 2012 and 2020 and explains the factors that will drive them.


(Note: This paper is available on request.)