Publications: The Petroleum Economics Monthly

Energy Markets: This Time Will Not Be Different (September 2011)


The world economy is hurtling, blundering, meandering—choose an adjective—toward a second serious crisis. This time Europe and possibly China lead the process instead of the United States. The threat of a trade war worsens prospects. Global economic growth rates over the next year could be lower than projected, perhaps far lower. The economic slowdown could depress consumption of oil and other energy forms from current levels, as the 2009 slowdown did. Oil prices could follow, dropping more than fifty percent as they did during the 2008-2009 crisis. In this month's report, we examine the implications for oil markets of a significant economic slowdown.


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