Publications: The Petroleum Economics Monthly

Lower for Longer?: Explaining Inconsistent Market Behavior (September 2015)


This report’s title, "Lower for Longer?: Explaining Inconsistent Market Behavior," may seem incongruous, given that our previous issue was titled "Energy: A Gathering Storm II." It is not. Truth is, those hoping for higher oil prices may soon face a bleak outlook. Our current view is that prices will probably fall toward $30 per barrel by year’s end absent significant output reductions by oil-exporting countries or a collapse of production in a country such as Venezuela, which in contrast could send prices back toward $80. Indeed, Venezuela’s indeterminate future hangs over the market like the Sword of Damocles at present, hence our title “Lower for Longer?”


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