Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Producers' Dilemma (May 15, 2017)


The Russian energy minister and others believe that extending the OPEC production cut will start to bring global crude inventories down by the end of 2017 or the beginning of 2018. They will be disappointed. The parties to the agreement face two problems in their efforts to raise crude oil prices by eliminating the stock surplus. First, fracking will continue to develop along the "experience curve," especially in the United States. Second, expectations for growth in global crude oil consumption are not being met.


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