Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Plunge Toward Depression (December 4, 2017)


Equity stock prices keep rising. Firms rush to close mergers before the end of the year for tax reasons. The Republicans in the US Congress seem hellbent on passing a tax program that cuts corporate taxes to boost, in theory, economic activity. The value of one Bitcoin exceeded $11,000 last week. The Vienna Group oil-exporting countries extended their production cut through 2018. My financial advisers keep saying I should increase the equity allocation in my portfolio. So, why am I inclined to pull my money from the markets now? Why do I see a depression coming when no one else does? Does this matter for oil?


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