Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Next Lehman Moment: The Collapse of Energy's House of Cards (February 29, 2016)


Those working in, consulting to, or making policy about energy are from Mars, and the rest of us are from Earth. The difference between those living in the energy world and those living in the other (real?) world has become clearer and clearer as oil prices plummeted. In short, the world energy order is falling apart despite the brave statements emanating from Houston. PKVerleger LLC will shortly publish a long report, previewed here, titled “Energy’s House of Cards.” In it, we assert that the energy market is following the track of the US housing sector crash that began around 2000 and ended with the subprime crisis and Lehman Brothers’ implosion. We worry that the sharp drop in energy prices will create a similar cycle, one that has a lesser impact on the global economy but a potentially greater one on the energy sector.


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