Publications: Notes at the Margin

The Data Must Be Wrong (May 11, 2015)

Current US Output Probably Overestimated by 1.6 Million Barrels per Day


Something is amiss. All of the data cannot be correct. The forecasters have predicted large increases in crude oil stocks. Inventories should be approaching record levels if they are correct. Yet returns to storage, the mathematical representation of the forward price curves, show no inventory build anywhere in the world. Either the data used by forecasters to prepare their projections are wrong or the firms buying and selling oil in world oil commodity markets are out of touch. We are convinced the data are wrong.


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