Publications: Notes at the Margin
The Brent/WTI Spread and Other Matters (July 22, 2013)
The week’s Notes at the Margin focuses on the Brent/WTI spread. As every reader likely knows, the cash spread has closed completely while Brent for delivery in future months still trades at a significant premium to WTI. The distinction has implications for market behavior. The report also examines two other matters: the rapid rise in East Coast gasoline refining margins and RIN prices.
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- Notes at the Margin
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- A Contagious and Fatal Disease (July 10,...
- Introspection: Investors Are the Best Fo...
- Gasoline Futures: Setting the Price of R...
- Market Disruption: Consequences (June 19...
- It Wasn't Supposed to Be This Way (June ...
- The Disconnect (June 5, 2017)
- OPEC Needs to Embrace Contango (May 29, ...
- The Trump Effect on Oil (May 22, 2017)
- The Producers' Dilemma (May 15, 2017)
- Producers Need Longs (May 8, 2017)
- "Misled by Models" (May 1, 2017)
- Let OPEC Twist Slowly, Slowly in the Win...
- Scissors Have Two Blades (April 17, 2017...
- Oil Is Busting Out All Over (April 10, 2...
- The Curse of Expectations (April 3, 2017...
- True Spreads, True Contango (March 27, 2...
- Driving with Eyes on the Rearview Mirror...
- Expectations Frustrate Oil Producers (Ma...
- The Border Adjustment Tax: Really a Tax ...
- More Changes in the Oil Game (February 2...
- Futures Markets: The Uncontrolled Price ...
- Oil Market Analysis: Stuck in the Dark A...
- The Border Tax: An Impending Economic Ca...
- The Trump Put: Ending the Free Market in...
- In Denial (January 23, 2017)
- Why Export? (January 16, 2017)
- Vladimir, Be Careful What You Wish For (...
- Energy Markets: Lost at Sea without a Co...
- Preparing for a Border Tax (December 19,...
- Adjusting at the Speed of Light (Decembe...
- An Early Christmas Present for Shale Pro...
- Playing with Fire: Oil Producers Will Ge...
- The Gamble (November 21, 2016)
- Possible Impacts of Trump's Victory (Nov...
- Expectations, Rubber, OPEC...and Other I...
- One of OPEC's Problems: Ossified Adviser...
- Implications of the New Market; The Impo...
- Swing Demand and the Petroleum Market's ...
- Higher Prices -- A Certainty? (October 1...
- Gresham's Law and the New Economics of P...
- Has Oil Reached the Edge of a Cliff? (Se...
- Consistency (September 19, 2016)
- Stuck in a Time Warp (September 12, 2016...
- Price Spreads and Price Dynamics (Septem...
- Speculation and Anticipatory Hedging (Au...
- Border Adjustment Import Taxation (Augus...
- Differing Data: The Impact of Updating (...
- Hard Truths about Oil (August 1, 2016)
- An Einstein Moment (July 25, 2016)
- Economic Cost of Bad Data (July 18, 2016...
- The Gasoline Mystery Continued (July 11,...
- Year-over-Year Growth in US Gasoline Use...
- The Mirage of Higher Prices (June 20, 20...
- Strategic Stocks: An Anachronism, Partic...
- Is This All the Better the Market Can Do...
- Supporting Prices by Tweaking the Market...
- Points of Transition (May 23, 2016)
- Crude and Products: The New Commodity (M...
- The Saudi Change and the Oil Market's Di...
- Venezuela Breakdown: Hoarding Crude May ...
- Blind to the Obvious: Doha Failure Marks...
- The Doha Meeting: So What? (April 18, 20...
- The Doha Meeting (April 11, 2016)
- US Gasoline Consumption: Probably Drasti...
- Oil's New Future (March 28, 2016)
- Oil Inventories, Market Foreclosure, and...
- Oil's False Dawn (March 14, 2016)
- The Return of the Rule of Capture (March...
- The Next Lehman Moment (February 29, 201...
- Economic Impact of Lower Prices (Februar...
- Must Global Stocks Decline before Prices...
- Obama's Brilliant Oil Fork (February 8, ...
- Black Truffles, Crude Oil, Economic Illi...
- Confusion Reigns (January 25, 2016)
- Will Major Oil Companies Be Labeled "Sys...
- Ominous Portents (January 11, 2016)
- Secular Stagnation and the Price of Oil ...
- Fossil Fuel's Pyrrhic Victory (December ...
- OPEC Has No Power. Why Is That So Hard t...
- Shale Oil's Pearl Harbor; Crude May Have...
- Producer Impotence, Analyst Ignorance......
- Hotelling [Inverted] (November 23, 2015)
- Economic Illiteracy (November 16, 2015)
- The Keystone Pipeline, Orson Welles (Nov...
- Strategic Sense (November 2, 2015)
- The Game: Few Understand the Rules (Octo...
- The Price War's Target: Venezuela, the W...
- Can Anything Be Learned from Experience?...
- Toward Extreme Price Volatility (October...
- Petroleum's Bad Week (September 28, 2015...
- Market Uncertainty (September 21, 2015)
- Confusion Reigns (September 14, 2015)
- Data Driven -- 2 (September 7, 2015)
- Data Driven (August 31, 2015)
- Energy's China Syndrome (August 24, 2015...
- Meaningless Long-Term Futures Prices (Au...
- Robust, Liquid Futures Differentiate 201...
- The SPR Threat; Strong Demand (August 3,...
- The Short, Steep Road to $30 per Barrel;...
- Iran, Distillate, and California (July 2...
- Pure Fiction: The Errors in the IEA Mont...
- The Atlantic Divide and Distorted Trade ...
- Seeking Contemporaneous Information (Jun...
- Breaking Out of Silos: Let's Put Economi...
- The Great Divide: Two Different Worlds (...
- Good News for Oil? (June 8, 2015)
- A Difference of Texas Dimensions (June 2...
- Best to Be Lucky: OPEC's Successful Defe...
- "Truth" Cannot Be Found in the Model! (M...
- The New (Maybe Temporary) Dynamics of Oi...
- The Data Must Really Be Wrong (May 12, 2...
- The Data Must Be Wrong (May 11, 2015)
- Could the Data Be Wrong? (May 4, 2015)
- Brass Knuckles and Price Stability (Apri...
- Driving Blind: Bad Data Could Be Mislead...
- Drowning in Oil: The ETF Complication (A...
- Oil ETFs and the Impact of Lifting Irani...
- The ETF Mirage, the Storage Reality (Mar...
- The Inventory Surplus: The Elephant in t...
- Inventories, New Tanks, QE, and MLPs: A ...
- Storage, Exports, the Fed, and Global Ma...
- Doubling Down: Is It Game Over for Canad...
- Storage Economics and Cold Weather (Febr...
- Pause or Bottom? (February 16, 2015)
- Here We Go Again (February 9, 2015)
- Price Expectations (February 2, 2015)
- The Energy Industry's Irrational Exubera...
- Applying Gold Thinking to WTI (January 1...
- When Will We Know We Have Reached the Bo...
- WTI Is for Storage (January 5, 2014)
- Wanted: Longs to Buy Crude or Product (D...
- Implications of Applying the PC Analogy ...
- A Saudi Christmas Present for Harold Ham...
- OPEC's Start (December 1, 2014)
- OPEC's Decision Point (November 24, 2014...
- Santayanan Moments (November 17, 2014)
- The US Gulf: Focus of the Oil Price War ...
- A Variety of Topics (November 3, 2014)
- All the Rules Could Be Wrong (October 27...
- A Strictly Business Decision (October 20...
- Oil Price War 3.0 (October 13, 2014)
- Is Anyone Listening? (October 6, 2014)
- Entering a Period of Transformation (Sep...
- Middle East Exporters Cannot Stabilize M...
- Sleepwalkers Can Ruin Markets (September...
- Battle for Market Share: Repeating 1998?...
- The Numbers Don't Lie and the Consequenc...
- An Economy Constrained by Market Power: ...
- Understanding the Oil Producers: Market ...
- Competition on Markets: Are Lower Prices...
- Commodity Markets 101 (July 28, 2014)
- Profiting from the Pavlovian Response to...
- European Chutzpa (July 14, 2014)
- Gasoline: What Is Up? (July 8, 2014)
- Too Much of a Good Thing? (June 30, 2014...
- Implications of Economic Stagnation: Sec...
- The Hoarding Instinct (June 16, 2014)
- What Were They Thinking? (June 9, 2014)
- On WTI Backwardation, Falling US Consump...
- Report from the Rabbit Hole (May 26, 201...
- Uncertainties (May 19, 2014)
- Tylenol, Rail, and Canada (May 12, 2014)
- Models Have Never Been More Useless (May...
- Be Careful What You Wish For (April 28, ...
- Short-Run Fundamentals Point to Higher P...
- The Amazing Reversal of Fortune (April 1...
- Consumers, Wages, Income Inequality, and...
- Limits of WTI Contango; Ethanol Prices a...
- Net Energy Independence Arrives in Thirt...
- The Consequences of "What We've Got Here...
- Vladimir Putin and Unleashing the Second...
- A Meaningful Response to Russian Aggress...
- Oil Producers, Have No Fear; The Governm...
- Why Commodity Markets Matter to Oil Cons...
- Crude Prices: Going Up (February 10, 201...
- Energy Price Spikes: The Sequel (Februar...
- The Vanishing Hedge Funds: Threatening t...
- Refining: A Sunset Industry? (January 20...
- Exports of US Crude Oil: The Economic St...
- In Praise of Futures Markets (January 6,...
- The Fracking Miracle: A Triumph of Marke...
- Serious Economists Matter Occasionally (...
- The American Decade, Perhaps the America...
- The Clueless IEA (November 18, 2013)
- The CFTC Fails Again on Position Limits ...
- The Silent Revolution (November 4, 2013)
- The Cards Are Stacked Against European R...
- The IEA: Blacking Out the World (October...
- Arbitrage: Who Needs Government Data Any...
- The "B-to-B Crude Spread"; OPEC's Coming...
- Changing Arbitrage Relationships (Septem...
- Tipping Points (September 23, 2013)
- In Praise of EIA; The Impact of US Hedgi...
- Strategic Stocks: The Best Defender of H...
- American Energy Independence Day: We Won...
- Economic Growth, Brent Hedging, Dow Chem...
- Russia, Edward J. Snowden, and US Strate...
- Obfuscation 101 (August 5, 2013)
- George Mitchell 1919-2013 (July 29, 2013...
- The Brent/WTI Spread and Other Matters (...
- Derailers, an EU Veto, and Refinery Upse...
- The Oil Market Puzzle (July 8, 2013)
- Is the EU Irrelevant? Important Implicat...
- The WTI/Brent Spread Trade: Financial Pr...