Publications: Notes at the Margin

Playing with Fire: Oil Producers Will Get Burned (November 28, 2016)


Saudi Arabia's leaders have understood the threat posed by fracking and the United States to their wealth and their future income for over two years. Apparently, though, the heads of other oil-exporting countries do not understand this. Thus, as November comes to an end, the carefully orchestrated effort to sustain higher prices led by Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih is on the verge of collapse. If it fails, there will no second chance because of events elsewhere, events ignored by oil ministers and policymakers in most countries but not by the Saudis. This is almost certainly OPEC’s last opportunity.


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