Publications: Notes at the Margin

Pause or Bottom? (February 16, 2015)


Crude and product prices have increased decisively from their lows in January. The increases apparently have prompted some to think we have reached the bottom for prices. We see, though, other factors that explain the short-term price boost. In particular, transitory product market tightness has provided much of the impetus behind the crude price rise. The imbalance between global demand and supply remains, however, which will lead to further crude price declines absent some producers agreeing to remove oil from the market. This week's report provides the details and discusses the market implications.


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