Publications: Notes at the Margin

Oil Is "Busting Out" All Over (April 10, 2017)


Several new reports on US oil and gas reserves came out last week. All point to a richness never before noted. Forecasts of US output will need to be revised upward substantially if the independents are as successful in tapping other fields as they have been in the Permian Basin, where production is now averaging 2.2 million barrels per day and is expected to rise another 300,000 barrels per day by year's end. In our view, their success will be contagious. The US Energy Information Administration recently published a short-term outlook predicting an eight percent increase in US production from 8.8 million barrels per day in December 2016 to 9.5 million barrels per day in December 2017. Given recent trends, the estimate will likely need to be revised again, perhaps to ten million barrels per day or more. This week's report provides, as always, details and market implications.


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