Publications: Notes at the Margin

More Changes in the Oil Game (February 27, 2017)


Commodity markets must fundamentally be understood as an economic game. Participants are always looking for opportunities, imperfections, frictions, and imbalances. Those who find them make large profits. Others, if they are lucky, survive. In oil, Royal Dutch Shell is the best at this. A month ago, Argus Media reported that Forties shipments to Asia in January reached a record level of more than seven million barrels. Most of that oil was owned and transported by Shell. So, what is Shell up to? This report suggests an answer, one that might portend lower crude oil prices.


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