Publications: Notes at the Margin

Here We Go Again (February 9, 2015)


This Notes at the Margin covers several subjects. First, we respond to a Bank of International Settlements press release announcing a forthcoming oil market study. As Financial Times reports, "In a preliminary analysis of the oil market [price] rout, BIS, known as the central bankers' bank, says financial flows have contributed to the rout along with changes in supply and demand balances." In our view, to put it kindly, BIS is incorrect. Commodity markets did not cause the price drop. Second, we discuss possible causes for the eighteen percent rise in crude prices last week. We end with a discussion of the potential market implications of the continuing build in crude oil stocks.


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