Publications: Notes at the Margin

Energy Market Myopia (August 14, 2017)


There is an old saying "if the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail." The quote is often attributed to Mark Twain but there is no evidence he is the source. Whatever their origin, the sentiment in these words applies to much of the energy industry. Here we use the term "myopia" (i.e., a lack of imagination) in describing the forecasters at the International Energy Agency. Their hammer is the US Energy Information Administration. To paraphrase the adage, "if the only data you have come from the EIA, everything looks like it is growing by leaps and bounds." When one looks at other market data, however, this seems not to be the case.


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