Publications: Notes at the Margin
Differing Data: The Impact of Updating (August 8, 2016)
The picture that emerges from various data sources suggests that US gasoline use increased in February and March of 2016. In the following four months, though, growth has been subdued. In California, year-to-date use is up only 1.4 percent. The adjusted weekly data created by PKVerleger LLC shows a year-to-date increase of 1.3 percent. The BEA shows an increase of 2.1 percent for the first six months of 2016, while the EIA’s monthly data show an increase of 2.5 percent for the first five months.
The roughly two percentage point difference between the EIA weekly data and the other data series works out to approximately two hundred thousand barrels per day. The EIA monthly estimates for consumption of all petroleum products are also affected by this discrepancy. Total US use looks to be overstated by one hundred to two hundred thousand barrels per day. Again, the primary cause of the overstatement is the underestimates of exports.
In addition to this discussion of "Differing Data," this week's report examines "Structural Change and the Gasoline Glut" and provides a market overview update.
To request subscription information for Notes at the Margin, please Contact Us or send us an Information Request.
- Notes at the Margin
- Confused (February 18, 2019)
- Volatility Matters (February 11, 2019)
- Oil Markets in 2019 and 2020: No Feasibl...
- China's Threat to Refining Margins/Will ...
- Fracking's Achilles' Heel... (January 21...
- Hook to OPEC's Rescue (January 14, 2019)
- For the Lack of a Nail (January 7, 2019)
- What Ails Oil? (December 31, 2018)
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals III (Dece...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals II (Decem...
- Rethinking Market Fundamentals (December...
- Revenge of the Quants: Robert Mertons' O...
- Is There a Feasbile Solution to Product ...
- Blindsided by Gasoline: IMO 2020 Preview...
- Sanctions Surprise (November 5, 2018)
- The US at the IMO (October 29, 2018)
- The Aftermath (October 22, 2018)
- From London to Denver (October 15, 2018)
- A Policy Too Far? (October 8, 2018)
- US Iran Sanctions, OPEC Surplus Capacity...
- Designing Circuit Breakers for IMO 2020 ...
- Emerging Markets Again... (September 17,...
- The Emerging Market Threat (September 10...
- Quick Thoughts (September 4, 2018)
- Gasoline Use: Misunderstood (August 27, ...
- Hedge Now! (August 20, 2018)
- IMO 2020: Worst-Case Scenario for Retail...
- Energy in the Crosshairs (August 6, 2018...
- Distillate/Diesel: A Spike in the Offing...
- The SPR Popgun; European Tariffs Could T...
- US Independent Producers: The Next Victi...
- Trump, Tweets, Trade (July 9, 2018)
- Panic at the White House (July 2, 2018)
- OPEC's Decision; Rules of Thumb and IMO ...
- The Calm Before the Storm (June 18, 2018...
- A Screwy Debate over a Gasoline Pipeline...
- Neglecting Hoarding; Blackmailing Allies...
- OPEC and Russia Wake Up Too Late (May 28...
- Disruptions Real and Fictitious; $300 Cr...
- The Venezuelan Disruption, the Iranian D...
- The Eighth Oil Price Spike in Fifty Year...
- The Politics of Gasoline Prices (April 3...
- Could Donald Trump "Trump" al-Falih? (Ap...
- Saudi Arabia Seizes Its Last Opportunity...
- Chaos Is Not a Policy (April 9, 2018)
- Avoiding Catastrophe: How to Fix the IMO...
- The IMO, 2020, and $200 Crude (March 26,...
- Divergence: Whither Crude Prices? (March...
- CERAWeek Exposes OPEC's Permian Achilles...
- A Lesson from History (March 5, 2018)
- Random Threads (February 26, 2018)
- Oil as an Agricultural Industry (Februar...
- Blame the VIX (February 12, 2018)
- Refining Economics (February 5, 2018)
- Oil and the Dollar (January 29, 2018)
- Dollar Weakness: Implications for Oil (J...
- The Difference of a Decade (January 15, ...
- Whither Prices? (January 8, 2018)
- 20 x 20: Vienna, We Have a Problem (Janu...